USA poised to advance in WBC thanks to Italy-Mexico tiebreaker

Story byUSA poised to advance in WBC thanks to Italy-Mexico tiebreakerBob Nightengale, USA TODAYThu, March 12, 2026 at 12:47 AM UTC·1 min read

HOUSTON — That cheering you heard throughout the state of Texas was from Team USA’s hotel Wednesday night.

Team USA, by simply sitting around and cheering from the comforts of its posh hotel, is on the verge of advancing to the World Baseball Classic quarterfinals. The moment it became (near) reality was when Italy scored its fifth run in the fifth inning against Team Mexico, taking a 5-0 lead.

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It all but clinched USA’s quarterfinal berth because of the WBC tiebreakers — no matter whether Italy goes on to win or lose the game. The first tiebreaker is runs allowed divided by outs, and even if Mexico comes back to win the game, it would require scoring six runs, which would then give the USA the tiebreaker over Italy. (Things could change if we get extra innings — many extra innings.)

United States shortstop Gunnar Henderson (11) celebrates after hitting a two-run double against Great Britain during the fifth inning at Daikin Park on Mar 7, 2026.Shohei Ohtani of Team Japan is forced out after the grounder of Kensuke Kondo #8 of Team Japan in the seventh inning during the 2026 World Baseball Classic Pool C game between Australia and Japan at Tokyo Dome on March 8, 2026 in Tokyo, Japan.Fans celebrate Taiwan's victory after the World Baseball Classic (WBC) Pool C game between Taiwan and South Korea at the Tokyo Dome in Tokyo on March 8, 2026.Taiwan players celebrate after winning their game against South Korea on March 8, 2026 at the Tokyo Dome, Tokyo, Japan.Taiwan's Shao-Hung Chiang (R) tags out South Korea's Kim Ju-won at home plate during the World Baseball Classic (WBC) Pool C game between Taiwan and South Korea at the Tokyo Dome in Tokyo on March 8, 2026.Fans hold up Korean national flags as they stand for the national anthem prior to the 2026 World Baseball Classic Pool C game between Chinese Taipei and South Korea at Tokyo Dome on March 8, 2026 in Tokyo, Japan.United States shortstop Gunnar Henderson (11), right fielder Roman Anthony (3) and center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong (4) celebrate after the game against Great Britain at Daikin Park.Venezuela first baseman Luis Arraez reacts from second base after hitting a double against Israel during the eighth inning at loanDepot Park on March 7, 2026 in Miami.Bo Gyeong Moon of Team Republic of Korea collides with fence in the seventh inning during the 2026 World Baseball Classic Pool C game between South Korea and Japan at Tokyo Dome on March 7, 2026 in Tokyo, Japan.Venezuela center fielder Javier Sanoja reacts from third base against Israel during the seventh inning at loanDepot Park on March 7, 2026 in Miami.Venezuela first baseman Luis Arraez (2) celebrates with catcher Salvador Perez (13) after hitting a two-run home run against Israel during the sixth inning at loanDepot Park on March 7, 2026 in Miami.Italy pitcher Gordon Graceffo (44) reacts after getting an out during the seventh inning against Brazil at Daikin Park on March 7, 2026 in Houston.Dominican Republic center fielder Oneil Cruz (15) celebrates his three-run home run in the eighth inning against Nicaragua with teammates at loanDepot Park on March 6, 2026 in Miami.Brazil first baseman Dante Bichette Jr. (77) looks on from the dugout during the third inning against the United States at Daikin Park on March 6, 2026 in HoustonSeiya Suzuki #51 of Team Japan celebrates scoring a run by a RBI triple of Masataka Yoshida #34 (not pictured) in the second inning during the 2026 World Baseball Classic Pool C game between Japan and Chinese Taipei at Tokyo Dome on March 6, 2026 in Tokyo, Japan.Venezuelan baseball fans show their support for their team against the Netherlands at loanDepot Park on March 6, 2026 in Miami.Brazil shortstop Vitor Ito (1) throws to first on an infield single by United States shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. (not pictured) during the first inning at Daikin Park on March 6 in Houston.Fans cheer as Mexico center fielder Alek Thomas (5) slides to score a run during the ninth inning against Great Britain at Daikin Park on March 6, 2026 in Houston.Mexico first baseman Jonathan Aranda (8) celebrates with right fielder Jarren Duran (16) after. hitting a home run during the eighth inning against Great Britain at Daikin Park on March 6, 2026 in Houston.Robbie Perkins #9 of Team Australia is tagged out at home by Martin Cervenka #55 of Team Czechia in the ninth inning during the 2026 World Baseball Classic Pool C game between Australia and Czechia at Tokyo Dome on March 6, 2026 in Tokyo, Japan.Ronald Acu–a Jr. of Team Venezuela throws hit bat after getting walked during the fifth inning of a 2026 World Baseball Classic Pool D game against Team Kingdom of the Netherlands at loanDepot park on March 6, 2026 in Miami, Florida.Venezuela outfielder Ronald Acu–a Jr. celebrates scoring a run in the first inning against the Netherlands at loanDepot Park on March 6, 2026 in Miami.1 / 22

See energy and national pride overflow at World Baseball Classic

United States shortstop Gunnar Henderson (11) celebrates after hitting a two-run double against Great Britain during the fifth inning at Daikin Park on Mar 7, 2026.1 / 22

See energy and national pride overflow at World Baseball Classic

United States shortstop Gunnar Henderson (11) celebrates after hitting a two-run double against Great Britain during the fifth inning at Daikin Park on Mar 7, 2026.2 / 22

See energy and national pride overflow at World Baseball Classic

Shohei Ohtani of Team Japan is forced out after the grounder of Kensuke Kondo #8 of Team Japan in the seventh inning during the 2026 World Baseball Classic Pool C game between Australia and Japan at Tokyo Dome on March 8, 2026 in Tokyo, Japan.3 / 22

See energy and national pride overflow at World Baseball Classic

Fans celebrate Taiwan's victory after the World Baseball Classic (WBC) Pool C game between Taiwan and South Korea at the Tokyo Dome in Tokyo on March 8, 2026.4 / 22

See energy and national pride overflow at World Baseball Classic

Taiwan players celebrate after winning their game against South Korea on March 8, 2026 at the Tokyo Dome, Tokyo, Japan.5 / 22

See energy and national pride overflow at World Baseball Classic

Taiwan's Shao-Hung Chiang (R) tags out South Korea's Kim Ju-won at home plate during the World Baseball Classic (WBC) Pool C game between Taiwan and South Korea at the Tokyo Dome in Tokyo on March 8, 2026.6 / 22

See energy and national pride overflow at World Baseball Classic

Fans hold up Korean national flags as they stand for the national anthem prior to the 2026 World Baseball Classic Pool C game between Chinese Taipei and South Korea at Tokyo Dome on March 8, 2026 in Tokyo, Japan.7 / 22

See energy and national pride overflow at World Baseball Classic

United States shortstop Gunnar Henderson (11), right fielder Roman Anthony (3) and center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong (4) celebrate after the game against Great Britain at Daikin Park.8 / 22

See energy and national pride overflow at World Baseball Classic

Venezuela first baseman Luis Arraez reacts from second base after hitting a double against Israel during the eighth inning at loanDepot Park on March 7, 2026 in Miami.9 / 22

See energy and national pride overflow at World Baseball Classic

Bo Gyeong Moon of Team Republic of Korea collides with fence in the seventh inning during the 2026 World Baseball Classic Pool C game between South Korea and Japan at Tokyo Dome on March 7, 2026 in Tokyo, Japan.10 / 22

See energy and national pride overflow at World Baseball Classic

Venezuela center fielder Javier Sanoja reacts from third base against Israel during the seventh inning at loanDepot Park on March 7, 2026 in Miami.11 / 22

See energy and national pride overflow at World Baseball Classic

Venezuela first baseman Luis Arraez (2) celebrates with catcher Salvador Perez (13) after hitting a two-run home run against Israel during the sixth inning at loanDepot Park on March 7, 2026 in Miami.12 / 22

See energy and national pride overflow at World Baseball Classic

Italy pitcher Gordon Graceffo (44) reacts after getting an out during the seventh inning against Brazil at Daikin Park on March 7, 2026 in Houston.13 / 22

See energy and national pride overflow at World Baseball Classic

Dominican Republic center fielder Oneil Cruz (15) celebrates his three-run home run in the eighth inning against Nicaragua with teammates at loanDepot Park on March 6, 2026 in Miami.14 / 22

See energy and national pride overflow at World Baseball Classic

Brazil first baseman Dante Bichette Jr. (77) looks on from the dugout during the third inning against the United States at Daikin Park on March 6, 2026 in Houston15 / 22

See energy and national pride overflow at World Baseball Classic

Seiya Suzuki #51 of Team Japan celebrates scoring a run by a RBI triple of Masataka Yoshida #34 (not pictured) in the second inning during the 2026 World Baseball Classic Pool C game between Japan and Chinese Taipei at Tokyo Dome on March 6, 2026 in Tokyo, Japan.16 / 22

See energy and national pride overflow at World Baseball Classic

Venezuelan baseball fans show their support for their team against the Netherlands at loanDepot Park on March 6, 2026 in Miami.17 / 22

See energy and national pride overflow at World Baseball Classic

Brazil shortstop Vitor Ito (1) throws to first on an infield single by United States shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. (not pictured) during the first inning at Daikin Park on March 6 in Houston.18 / 22

See energy and national pride overflow at World Baseball Classic

Fans cheer as Mexico center fielder Alek Thomas (5) slides to score a run during the ninth inning against Great Britain at Daikin Park on March 6, 2026 in Houston.19 / 22

See energy and national pride overflow at World Baseball Classic

Mexico first baseman Jonathan Aranda (8) celebrates with right fielder Jarren Duran (16) after. hitting a home run during the eighth inning against Great Britain at Daikin Park on March 6, 2026 in Houston.20 / 22

See energy and national pride overflow at World Baseball Classic

Robbie Perkins #9 of Team Australia is tagged out at home by Martin Cervenka #55 of Team Czechia in the ninth inning during the 2026 World Baseball Classic Pool C game between Australia and Czechia at Tokyo Dome on March 6, 2026 in Tokyo, Japan.21 / 22

See energy and national pride overflow at World Baseball Classic

Ronald Acu–a Jr. of Team Venezuela throws hit bat after getting walked during the fifth inning of a 2026 World Baseball Classic Pool D game against Team Kingdom of the Netherlands at loanDepot park on March 6, 2026 in Miami, Florida.22 / 22

See energy and national pride overflow at World Baseball Classic

Venezuela outfielder Ronald Acu–a Jr. celebrates scoring a run in the first inning against the Netherlands at loanDepot Park on March 6, 2026 in Miami.

Certainly, it allowed Team USA manager Mark DeRosa to exhale after he was ridiculed for mistakenly believing that the USA had clinched a quarterfinal berth Monday after beating Mexico, 5-3. He said that he misspoke when he was on MLB Network and erroneously said that the USA had already punched its ticket to the quarterfinals.

He was corrected when he arrived to Daikin Park, saying it didn’t affect his lineup or his in-game strategy, which was magnified with the USA’s 8-6 loss to Italy.

And now, once this goes final, there will be no need for tiebreakers or calculations.

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It becomes a single elimination tournament with the USA playing either Canada or Puerto Rico on Friday night in Houston.

Follow Nightengale on X: @BNightengale

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: USA poised to advance in World Baseball Classic thanks to Italy

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