OKC has been more than OK this season thanks to the transcendent play of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The reigning MVP is averaging 31.9 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 6.4 assists for the Thunder, who are on pace to finish with one of the best records in NBA history.
What began as a two-horse race between SGA and three-time MVP Nikola Jokic, has now become a season long coronation as the Canadian point guard continues to separate from the pack. His -400 odds are the lowest they've been all year, and there's no reason to believe they'll shorten anytime soon as he continues his dominance at both ends of the court.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementLet's take a look at the latest NBA MVP odds below.
🏀2026 NBA MVP odds
Player
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
<<-400>>
Luka Doncic
<<+500>>
Cade Cunningham
<<+2500>>
Jaylen Brown
<<+3500>>
Jalen Brunson
<<+6000>>
Tyrese Maxey
<<+7000>>
Anthony Edwards
<<+8000>>
Donovan Mitchell
<<+50000>>
🤖 NBA MVP AI prediction
It should come as no surprise that ChatGPT is a big fan of SGA. Here's what the chatbot had to say about the defending NBA MVP winner:
With voters increasingly sensitive to both team success and two-way impact, SGA has the cleanest path to an MVP narrative this season. He's the best player on a top-two team in the West, elite efficiency from all three levels, and offers real defensive bite at the point of attack. His game scales without drama—he can dominate in isolation or flow within movement-heavy actions, and he gets to the line a ton without forcing bad shots. If Oklahoma City’s depth keeps their net ratings gaudy when he sits, while his on/off still pops, he’ll own the “drives winning” storyline that tends to decide close MVP races.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementDoncic will put up video-game numbers again, yet the bar for heliocentric guards keeps rising, and defensive skepticism plus any midseason usage management could ding his case.
By contrast, SGA’s steadiness, durability, and two-way credibility give him multiple avenues to “win” the discourse even if raw counting stats are a tick lower—especially if the Thunder post the league’s best record.
📈 NBA odds over time
💰2026 NBA MVP opening odds
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander +150
Nikola Jokic +350
Luka Doncic +380
Giannis Antetokounmpo +1200
Victor Wembanyama +1200
Anthony Edwards +2500
Kevin Durant +5000
Cade Cunningham +6000
Jalen Brunson +8000
Donovan Mitchell +10000
Paolo Banchero +10000
Trae Young +15000
NBA MVP betting data
The following data is courtesy of BetMGM.
Highest ticket percentage:
Spurs
Victor Wembanyama 18.1%
Highest handle percentage:
Lakers
Luka Doncic 21.7%
Biggest liability:
Victor Wembanyama
Popular NBA futures odds
NBA championship odds
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NBA Defensive Player of the Year odds
NBA Coach of the Year odds
NBA Clutch Player of the Year odds
How is the NBA MVP decided?
The MVP award is one of the most prestigious honors in professional basketball—and one of the most debated. But how is the MVP actually chosen?
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement🗳️ MVP Voting Process
The MVP is determined by a panel of 100 sportswriters and broadcasters from the U.S. and Canada, as well as a fan vote that counts as one ballot. Each voter selects five players, ranked from first to fifth place. The point system is as follows:
1st place vote: 10 points
2nd place: 7 points
3rd place: 5 points
4th place: 3 points
5th place: 1 point
The player with the highest total point tally at the end of voting is crowned NBA MVP.
📊 What Do Voters Consider?
While there's no official checklist, MVP voters typically weigh several key factors:
Individual statistics: Points, assists, rebounds, efficiency, advanced metrics like PER or Win Shares
Team success: MVPs are rarely chosen from losing teams and Top 3 seeds are the norm
Narrative and storyline: Voters often reward players overcoming adversity or carrying a franchise
Consistency and availability: Games played, durability, and clutch performance matter
👀 Voter Biases and Trends
Some unofficial trends also influence MVP outcomes:
“Voter fatigue”: Players who've already won may need to outperform their own past seasons to win again
New blood bias: Voters sometimes prefer rising stars over repeat winners
Position favoritism: Guards and forwards tend to dominate MVP voting, although that trend has been changing in recent years
📜NBA MVP betting history
A quick look at recent NBA MVPs and their opening odds.
Season
Player
Opening Odds
Team
2024-25
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
+400
Oklahoma City Thunder
2023-24
Nikola Jokic
+450
Denver Nuggets
2022-23
Joel Embiid
+600
Philadelphia 76ers
2021-22
Nikola Jokic
+1600
Denver Nuggets
2020-21
Nikola Jokic
+2500
Denver Nuggets
2019-20
Giannis Antetokounmpo
+210
Milwaukee Bucks
2018-19
Giannis Antetokounmpo
+475
Milwaukee Bucks
2017-18
James Harden
+1100
Houston Rockets
2016-17
Russell Westbrook
+200
Oklahoma City Thunder
2015-16
Stephen Curry
+650
Golden State Warriors
2014-15
Stephen Curry
+1600
Golden State Warriors
This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here
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